How to Calculate Winning Chances and Out Cards at Online Poker

Poker is a card game that is quite old. This game has evolved and created various rules. Even in Indonesia, there is a game called Capsa, which partly takes the idea of ​​playing poker. The essence of this game is that each player has five cards and the player who has the best card is the winner.

Basically a poker gambling game based on the players’ hockey. So, the player who gets the hardest card or the card that has the lowest chance of appearing will be the winner. That way, the appearance of a good card must be calculated mathematically using probability theory.

Admin will explain it to you the calculation of the odds of a card coming out is called OUTS and serves to determine the ODDS POT or the ratio between the total number of cards with the current bet amount. OUTS are all cards that have not been seen on the deck and also cards that are in the opponent’s hand. Knowing OUTS is the most important part in playing poker strategy.

To get Flush, in your hand there are 2 hearts cards and the flop gives 2 hearts cards. Since the total number of hearts is 13, and you have seen 4, this means that there are still 9 hearts so you have 9 OUTS to be able to make a Flush combination on the next card (turn and river). The easiest way to determine the percentage of OUTS is as follows:

You have 9 OUTS and 2 rounds (turn and river) to make a Flush, so 9 x 2 – 18. The number 18 is then multiplied by 2, 18 x 2 = 36. So, you have an OUTS percentage of 36% (more precisely 34.97 %). After you get the OUTS percentage, then do the POT ODDS calculation.

If there is a 10K chip and your opponent bet 2K, then you must enter a call of at least 2K if you want to continue playing. That way, the ODDS POT calculation is obtained:

  • POT ODDS = 10K + 2K / 2K
  • POT ODDS = 12K / 2K
  • POT ODDS = 6 versus 1

How to Calculate Winning Chances and Out Cards at Online Poker 2

So, you have an ODDS POT of 6 to 1 or 16.66%. Then, use the ODDS POT value to calculate the Expected Value. EV is generated by comparing the POT ODDS value with the OUTS value, and if the OUTS value is greater than the ODDS value, then calling will be called a positive EV (+ EV) or a favorable action, and vice versa. From the previous value, the EV value is as follows:

  • +EV = Percentage of OUTS> Percentage of POT ODDS
  • -EV = Percentage of OUTS <Percentage of POT ODDS
  • EV = 36%> 16.66% + + EV

If you call for 2K to reach Flush, then your action is the right or beneficial action (+ EV) and if you choose to fold, then your action is inappropriate or detrimental (-EV).

After you know the chances of the cards that will come out next, you should also calculate the chance of victory that you will get to solidify your steps. Then, like what method? See the calculation below.

Before you begin counting, you need to know that there are universal calculations for various combinations that might appear if there are 5 cards dealt. These calculations are:

The number of cards played is 52, so the calculation is 52C5 = 52! / 47! 5! = 20 X 49 X 51 X 52 = 2,598,960

Full House

To get Full House, 4C3 equation is used, which is to take 3 cards from the 4 available cards (for example, ace). Because there are 13 possibilities, the total is 4C3 X 13. If you take 2 cards from the 4 available cards (for example Jack cards), 4C2 is obtained. Then, there will be 12 chances left because one card has been drawn, so 4C2 X 12. Thus, the possibility of winning Full house is 4C3 X 13 4C2 X 12 = 4 X 13 X 6 X 12 = 3,744. So, your chances are 3,744: 2,598,960 or around 1: 694,167.

Four of a Kind

Four of a Kind is getting 4 of a kind, used 4C4 or taking 4 of the 4 available cards. Because there are 13 possibilities and 4C4 is equal to one, then the total is 1 X 13. If there is 1 junk card, then you will take 1 card out of the remaining 48 cards, which is 48C1 = 48. Thus, the probability of winning Four of a Kind is 1 X 13 X 48 = 624. So, your chances are 624: 2,598,960 or about 1: 4,165.

Straight Flush

The order in Straight Flush has one type of combination with the same interest and therefore, the total becomes 8 X 1 X 4. Thus, the probability of winning a Straight Flush is 8 X 1 X 4 = 32. So your chance is 32: 2,598,960 or about 1: 81,217,5.

For your convenience, here is a sequence of winning odds from a combination of cards from highest to lowest:

  • Royal Flush with a combination of 4, has a 1: 694,740 chance
  • Straight Flush with a combination of 32, has a 1: 81,217.5 chance
  • Four of a Kind with a combined number of 624, has a 1: 4,165 chance
  • Full House with a total combination of 3,744, has a 1: 694,167 chance
  • Flush with a total of 5,112 combinations, has a 1: 508,404 chance
  • Five Straight with a combined number of 9,180, has a 1: 283,111 chance
  • Three of a Kind with a combination of 54,912, has a 1: 47.33 chance
  • Two Pair with the number of combinations of 123,552, has a 1: 21.04 chance
  • One Pair with a combination of 1,098,240, has a 1: 2,3665 chance

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